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Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET

data as of 2026-07-04 18:55 UTC● RESOLVEDUp won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
UP✓ WON
100¢
DOWN
0¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
UP
100¢
UpU-DDown
Position$6.9K+$3.5K$3.4K
Holders115+1996
Trades1.1K−111.2K
DOWN
0¢
UpΔ U−DDown
Track record
Avg settle win rate51.2%
+0.1 pp
51.0%
Avg ROI0.7%
+0.6 pp
0.2%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×0.76
−1.04×
×1.79
Top-20 avg cost vs price×0.74
−1.04×
×1.78
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$2.4K
+$1.1K
$1.3K
Recent buyer dominance0.92
+0.01
0.92
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL35.8%
+80.3 pp
-44.5%
Underwater %1.5%
−96.7 pp
98.2%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %61.1%
−2.0 pp
63.1%
Bot %68.5%
−4.4 pp
72.9%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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