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Will Meta have a #1 AI model by June 30?

data as of 2026-01-01 14:26 UTC✓ on-chain▲ Higher win rate: Yes🗓️ settles Jun 30, 2026Trade on Polymarket ↗
YES
9¢
NO
91¢
YES
9¢
YesY-NNo
Position$85−$1.7K$1.8K
Holders32+824
Trades254+15599
NO
91¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate61.5%
+61.5 pp
0.0%
Avg ROI22.6%
+22.6 pp
0.0%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×0.83
+0.83×
×0.00
Top-20 avg cost vs price×0.89
+0.89×
×0.00
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$4
+$26
−$22
Recent buyer dominance1.00
+1.00
0.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL10.6%
+10.6 pp
0.0%
Underwater %7.0%
+7.0 pp
0.0%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %80.9%
+80.9 pp
0.0%
Bot %80.9%
+80.9 pp
0.0%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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