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Will the Republican Party hold between 200 and 204 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

data as of 2026-04-13 14:52 UTC✓ on-chain▲ Higher win rate: No🗓️ settles Nov 3, 2026Trade on Polymarket ↗
YES
6¢
NO
91¢
YES
6¢
YesY-NNo
Position$327−$1.9K$2.2K
Holders59+257
Trades531+309222
NO
91¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate33.0%
−49.7 pp
82.7%
Avg ROI13.1%
+13.5 pp
-0.4%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×1.41
+0.45×
×0.96
Top-20 avg cost vs price×1.26
+0.27×
×0.98
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$10
−$489
$499
Recent buyer dominance0.80
−0.20
1.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-21.8%
−23.7 pp
1.9%
Underwater %55.6%
+25.6 pp
30.0%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %6.1%
−81.7 pp
87.8%
Bot %6.8%
−81.0 pp
87.8%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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