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Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 4?

data as of 2026-03-07 22:45 UTC● RESOLVEDYes won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
YES✓ WON
100¢
NO
0¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
YES
100¢
YesY-NNo
Position$5.1K+$4.6K$492
Holders50050
Trades480−53533
NO
0¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate71.2%
+30.3 pp
40.9%
Avg ROI10.4%
+13.4 pp
-3.0%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×1.19
+0.44×
×0.75
Top-20 avg cost vs price×1.04
+0.19×
×0.85
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume−$74
−$228
$154
Recent buyer dominance0.16
−0.81
0.97
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-1.4%
−19.3 pp
17.8%
Underwater %78.2%
+62.8 pp
15.4%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %4.6%
−41.0 pp
45.6%
Bot %4.6%
−41.0 pp
45.6%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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