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Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET

data as of 2026-01-04 19:14 UTC● RESOLVEDDown won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
UP
0¢
DOWN✓ WON
100¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
UP
0¢
UpU-DDown
Position$12K−$31K$43K
Holders323+43280
Trades4.2K+2713.9K
DOWN
100¢
UpΔ U−DDown
Track record
Avg settle win rate43.5%
−14.0 pp
57.5%
Avg ROI-1.3%
−2.0 pp
0.7%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×213.70
+212.91×
×0.78
Top-20 avg cost vs price×222.56
+221.77×
×0.79
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$56
−$7.8K
$7.8K
Recent buyer dominance0.69
−0.04
0.73
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-99.5%
−124.0 pp
24.5%
Underwater %99.1%
+96.6 pp
2.5%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %53.8%
−16.8 pp
70.6%
Bot %50.3%
−18.5 pp
68.8%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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