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Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 4% and 6%?

data as of 2026-06-15 17:08 UTC✓ on-chain▲ Higher win rate: Yes🗓️ settles Nov 3, 2026Trade on Polymarket ↗
YES
9¢
NO
89¢
YES
9¢
YesY-NNo
Position$114−$875$989
Holders16−2238
Trades127−12139
NO
89¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate56.3%
+6.3 pp
50.0%
Avg ROI31.7%
+31.9 pp
-0.2%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×1.00
−0.01×
×1.01
Top-20 avg cost vs price×1.02
+0.01×
×1.01
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$41
−$373
$414
Recent buyer dominance0.70
+0.04
0.67
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL2.0%
+3.4 pp
-1.4%
Underwater %12.3%
−68.8 pp
81.1%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %14.8%
−9.8 pp
24.6%
Bot %13.9%
−19.3 pp
33.2%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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