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Will Tesla deliver less than 300000 vehicles in Q2 2026

data as of 2026-04-23 08:52 UTC✓ on-chain▲ Higher win rate: No🗓️ settles Jun 30, 2026Trade on Polymarket ↗
YES
1¢
NO
99¢
YES
1¢
YesY-NNo
Position$30−$2.4K$2.4K
Holders30−5080
Trades493+278215
NO
99¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate32.4%
−51.5 pp
83.9%
Avg ROI10.8%
+10.3 pp
0.5%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×1.16
+0.16×
×1.00
Top-20 avg cost vs price×2.14
+1.14×
×1.00
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$0
−$10
$10
Recent buyer dominance1.00
+0.00
1.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-48.6%
−49.1 pp
0.4%
Underwater %84.1%
+54.7 pp
29.4%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %23.6%
−30.1 pp
53.6%
Bot %23.6%
−30.1 pp
53.6%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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