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SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 21?

data as of 2026-04-21 19:44 UTC● RESOLVEDDown won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
UP
0¢
DOWN✓ WON
100¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
UP
0¢
UpU-DDown
Position$3.5K−$4.0K$7.5K
Holders47−350
Trades644−169813
DOWN
100¢
UpΔ U−DDown
Track record
Avg settle win rate41.4%
−12.5 pp
53.8%
Avg ROI4.5%
+0.3 pp
4.1%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×25.68
+25.01×
×0.67
Top-20 avg cost vs price×26.79
+26.13×
×0.65
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume−$3
−$17
$14
Recent buyer dominance0.30
−0.22
0.52
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-96.3%
−166.0 pp
69.7%
Underwater %99.5%
+99.5 pp
0.0%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %39.7%
+7.7 pp
32.0%
Bot %39.7%
+7.7 pp
32.0%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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