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Will the Republican Party win the AL-02 House seat?

data as of 2026-06-03 01:25 UTC✓ on-chain▲ Higher win rate: No🗓️ settles Nov 3, 2026Trade on Polymarket ↗
YES
71¢
NO
30¢
YES
71¢
YesY-NNo
Position$1.1K−$1.8K$2.9K
Holders56−1975
Trades420+31389
NO
30¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate60.9%
−5.9 pp
66.9%
Avg ROI26.3%
+22.2 pp
4.0%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×0.49
−1.60×
×2.09
Top-20 avg cost vs price×0.50
−1.62×
×2.12
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$344
+$173
$171
Recent buyer dominance0.80
−0.20
1.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL97.5%
+149.3 pp
-51.8%
Underwater %4.1%
−82.5 pp
86.6%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %17.0%
−43.3 pp
60.4%
Bot %17.7%
−45.3 pp
63.1%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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