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Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?

data as of 2026-07-01 09:08 UTC▲ Higher win rate: Yes🗓️ settles Jul 31, 2026Trade on Polymarket ↗
YES
75¢
NO
25¢
YES
75¢
YesY-NNo
Position$58−$69$127
Holders2−1012
Trades20+614
NO
25¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate75.7%
+75.7 pp
0.0%
Avg ROI3.7%
+3.7 pp
0.0%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×1.10
−0.38×
×1.48
Top-20 avg cost vs price×1.08
−0.39×
×1.48
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$353
+$322
$31
Recent buyer dominance1.00
+0.00
1.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-7.6%
+24.6 pp
-32.3%
Underwater %100.0%
−0.0 pp
100.0%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %0.0%
−100.0 pp
100.0%
Bot %0.0%
−100.0 pp
100.0%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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