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Will David Farley win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?

data as of 2026-05-09 09:49 UTC● RESOLVEDYes won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
YES✓ WON
100¢
NO
0¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
YES
100¢
YesY-NNo
Position$41K+$34K$7.1K
Holders242+137105
Trades767−40807
NO
0¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate76.5%
+15.3 pp
61.2%
Avg ROI3.5%
+2.7 pp
0.7%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×0.87
−13.06×
×13.93
Top-20 avg cost vs price×0.86
−14.91×
×15.77
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume−$309
−$306
−$3
Recent buyer dominance0.16
−0.09
0.26
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL16.2%
+110.0 pp
-93.8%
Underwater %0.0%
−100.0 pp
100.0%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %2.0%
−14.3 pp
16.3%
Bot %2.0%
−17.0 pp
18.9%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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