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Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

data as of 2026-03-16 09:41 UTC✓ on-chain▲ Higher win rate: Yes🗓️ settles Oct 10, 2026Trade on Polymarket ↗
YES
3¢
NO
97¢
YES
3¢
YesY-NNo
Position$2.0K−$36K$38K
Holders268−1.5K1.8K
Trades11K−3.5K14K
NO
97¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate51.0%
+1.3 pp
49.7%
Avg ROI6.2%
+2.0 pp
4.3%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×1.26
+0.28×
×0.98
Top-20 avg cost vs price×1.66
+0.69×
×0.97
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume−$2
+$38
−$40
Recent buyer dominance0.43
−0.03
0.46
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-48.4%
−52.0 pp
3.7%
Underwater %90.9%
+77.7 pp
13.2%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %15.9%
−4.4 pp
20.3%
Bot %16.0%
−4.2 pp
20.2%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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