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Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets in August 2026?

data as of 2026-07-24 04:02 UTC▲ Higher win rate: Yes🗓️ settles Sep 1, 2026Trade on Polymarket ↗
YES
1¢
NO
99¢
YES
1¢
YesY-NNo
Position$0−$6$7
Holders2+11
Trades3+21
NO
99¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate43.1%
+43.1 pp
0.0%
Avg ROI0.9%
+0.9 pp
0.0%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×1.00
+0.00×
×1.00
Top-20 avg cost vs price×2.50
+1.50×
×1.00
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$0
−$7
$7
Recent buyer dominance0.56
−0.44
1.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-60.0%
−60.0 pp
0.0%
Underwater %50.0%
+50.0 pp
0.0%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %50.0%
−50.0 pp
100.0%
Bot %50.0%
−50.0 pp
100.0%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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