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Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

data as of 2026-06-17 09:53 UTC✓ on-chain▲ Higher win rate: Yes🗓️ settles Oct 31, 2026Trade on Polymarket ↗
YES
8¢
NO
92¢
YES
8¢
YesY-NNo
Position$453−$1.3K$1.8K
Holders11−718
Trades112+6052
NO
92¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate26.6%
+26.6 pp
0.0%
Avg ROI-4.1%
−4.1 pp
0.0%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×0.09
−0.91×
×1.00
Top-20 avg cost vs price×0.07
−0.93×
×1.00
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$2
−$17
$18
Recent buyer dominance1.00
+0.00
1.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL1417.6%
+1417.6 pp
0.0%
Underwater %0.0%
+0.0 pp
0.0%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %1.2%
−98.8 pp
100.0%
Bot %1.2%
−98.8 pp
100.0%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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