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World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick?

data as of 2026-06-24 20:02 UTC✓ on-chain▲ Higher win rate: No🗓️ settles Jul 20, 2026Trade on Polymarket ↗
YES
22¢
NO
82¢
YES
22¢
YesY-NNo
Position$683−$8.8K$9.4K
Holders28−1442
Trades204−286490
NO
82¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate52.1%
−13.3 pp
65.4%
Avg ROI1.8%
−4.0 pp
5.8%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×1.05
+0.14×
×0.91
Top-20 avg cost vs price×1.06
+0.15×
×0.91
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$0
+$62
−$62
Recent buyer dominance0.00
−0.10
0.10
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-5.3%
−15.0 pp
9.6%
Underwater %74.5%
+74.5 pp
0.0%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %6.9%
+4.3 pp
2.6%
Bot %7.4%
+4.8 pp
2.6%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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