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Will the US add 200k or more jobs in June?

data as of 2025-07-03 07:00 UTC● RESOLVEDNo won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
YES
0¢
NO✓ WON
100¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
YES
0¢
YesY-NNo
Position$925−$19K$20K
Holders34−4478
Trades635−4741.1K
NO
100¢
YesΔ YNNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate41.9%
−23.9 pp
65.7%
Avg ROI-5.4%
−8.1 pp
2.7%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×4.37
+3.39×
×0.98
Top-20 avg cost vs price×4.05
+3.08×
×0.97
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$0
−$43
$44
Recent buyer dominance1.00
+0.32
0.68
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-76.1%
−79.1 pp
3.0%
Underwater %100.0%
+100.0 pp
0.0%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %20.3%
−45.3 pp
65.6%
Bot %20.3%
−45.7 pp
66.0%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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