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Will xAI’s Grok 4 win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?

data as of 2025-12-01 03:55 UTC● RESOLVEDNo won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
YES
0¢
NO✓ WON
100¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
YES
0¢
YesY-NNo
Position$221−$19K$20K
Holders66+2541
Trades733+336397
NO
100¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate50.4%
−8.2 pp
58.6%
Avg ROI13.5%
+5.3 pp
8.2%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×2.52
+1.54×
×0.98
Top-20 avg cost vs price×5.23
+4.26×
×0.97
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$1
−$210
$211
Recent buyer dominance0.89
−0.11
1.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-81.2%
−83.8 pp
2.6%
Underwater %100.0%
+100.0 pp
0.0%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %50.7%
−19.2 pp
70.0%
Bot %58.9%
−11.0 pp
70.0%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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