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Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?

data as of 2026-04-29 21:39 UTC● RESOLVEDNo won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
YES
0¢
NO✓ WON
100¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
YES
0¢
YesY-NNo
Position$4.9K−$554K$559K
Holders127−50177
Trades1.6K−4.3K5.9K
NO
100¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate40.3%
−39.1 pp
79.4%
Avg ROI50.6%
+50.7 pp
-0.1%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×13.00
+12.01×
×0.99
Top-20 avg cost vs price×8.94
+7.95×
×0.99
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$205
+$1.7K
−$1.5K
Recent buyer dominance1.00
+1.00
0.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-89.6%
−90.9 pp
1.2%
Underwater %99.1%
+99.1 pp
0.0%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %39.0%
+33.1 pp
5.9%
Bot %35.9%
+30.1 pp
5.8%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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