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Will James Thomas Bryer win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

data as of 2026-05-15 06:18 UTC✓ on-chain▲ Higher win rate: NoTrade on Polymarket ↗
YES
10¢
NO
87¢
YES
10¢
YesY-NNo
Position$11−$5.5K$5.6K
Holders12012
Trades106+4561
NO
87¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate65.8%
−9.0 pp
74.8%
Avg ROI-2.9%
−10.6 pp
7.7%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×1.30
+0.30×
×1.00
Top-20 avg cost vs price×1.30
+0.30×
×1.00
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$3
−$15
$17
Recent buyer dominance1.00
+0.00
1.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-23.0%
−23.0 pp
-0.0%
Underwater %99.6%
−0.4 pp
100.0%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %99.6%
+99.6 pp
0.0%
Bot %99.6%
+99.6 pp
0.0%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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