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Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

data as of 2025-12-25 21:45 UTC● RESOLVEDDown won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
UP
0¢
DOWN✓ WON
100¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
UP
0¢
UpU-DDown
Position$16K−$8.4K$25K
Holders252+24228
Trades3.9K+93.9K
DOWN
100¢
UpΔ U−DDown
Track record
Avg settle win rate44.2%
−12.0 pp
56.2%
Avg ROI4.0%
+11.3 pp
-7.4%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×42.73
+42.23×
×0.51
Top-20 avg cost vs price×40.87
+40.37×
×0.50
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$7.1K
−$2.0K
$9.2K
Recent buyer dominance0.78
+0.03
0.75
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-97.5%
−190.5 pp
93.0%
Underwater %96.5%
+96.3 pp
0.2%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %53.3%
+6.6 pp
46.7%
Bot %60.8%
+5.0 pp
55.8%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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