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Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET

data as of 2026-07-04 21:49 UTC● RESOLVEDDown won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
UP
0¢
DOWN✓ WON
100¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
UP
0¢
UpU-DDown
Position$9.3K−$4.0K$13K
Holders353+44309
Trades2.6K−382.6K
DOWN
100¢
UpΔ U−DDown
Track record
Avg settle win rate48.7%
−0.1 pp
48.8%
Avg ROI0.8%
−0.9 pp
1.7%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×24.23
+23.67×
×0.56
Top-20 avg cost vs price×21.61
+21.03×
×0.58
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$8.8K
−$2.9K
$11.8K
Recent buyer dominance0.93
+0.04
0.89
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-95.4%
−168.4 pp
73.0%
Underwater %99.0%
+99.0 pp
0.0%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %26.2%
+1.6 pp
24.7%
Bot %39.7%
−2.8 pp
42.5%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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