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Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 4?

data as of 2026-07-02 08:46 UTC▲ Higher win rate: No🗓️ settles Jul 4, 2026Trade on Polymarket ↗
YES
49¢
NO
51¢
YES
49¢
YesY-NNo
Position$204−$185$389
Holders11−1526
Trades23−1841
NO
51¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate34.5%
−21.9 pp
56.4%
Avg ROI-14.1%
−16.9 pp
2.9%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×0.54
−0.71×
×1.24
Top-20 avg cost vs price×0.67
−0.62×
×1.29
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$84
−$24
$108
Recent buyer dominance1.00
+0.21
0.79
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL49.4%
+72.4 pp
-23.0%
Underwater %0.0%
−100.0 pp
100.0%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %1.3%
−11.4 pp
12.7%
Bot %0.5%
−27.8 pp
28.3%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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