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Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET

data as of 2026-05-04 09:00 UTC● RESOLVEDDown won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
UP
0¢
DOWN✓ WON
100¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
UP
0¢
UpU-DDown
Position$13K+$3.1K$10K
Holders150+43107
Trades1.9K+971.9K
DOWN
100¢
UpΔ U−DDown
Track record
Avg settle win rate52.2%
+2.6 pp
49.5%
Avg ROI-4.4%
−3.3 pp
-1.1%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×51.74
+51.25×
×0.49
Top-20 avg cost vs price×45.96
+45.49×
×0.47
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$10.0K
+$6.9K
$3.2K
Recent buyer dominance0.94
+0.08
0.86
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-97.9%
−199.6 pp
101.7%
Underwater %99.2%
+99.1 pp
0.1%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %71.6%
−0.6 pp
72.1%
Bot %80.5%
−4.2 pp
84.7%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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