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Will the Israel–Iran conflict be the #1 searched news on Google this year?

data as of 2025-12-04 03:49 UTC● RESOLVEDNo won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
YES
0¢
NO✓ WON
100¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
YES
0¢
YesY-NNo
Position$1.7K−$21K$22K
Holders55−3792
Trades406−68474
NO
100¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate43.6%
−22.3 pp
65.9%
Avg ROI9.6%
+9.9 pp
-0.2%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×87.19
+86.24×
×0.95
Top-20 avg cost vs price×64.62
+63.68×
×0.94
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$7
−$7.1K
$7.1K
Recent buyer dominance1.00
+0.00
1.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-98.6%
−105.9 pp
7.3%
Underwater %87.2%
+87.1 pp
0.1%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %20.9%
−17.5 pp
38.4%
Bot %21.0%
−17.1 pp
38.1%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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