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Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19?

data as of 2026-06-23 07:57 UTC✓ on-chain▲ Higher win rate: No🗓️ settles Jul 19, 2026Trade on Polymarket ↗
YES
32¢
NO
66¢
YES
32¢
YesY-NNo
Position$575−$64$639
Holders31+1615
Trades106+997
NO
66¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate34.8%
−10.0 pp
44.8%
Avg ROI-1.8%
−2.0 pp
0.1%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×2.19
+1.16×
×1.03
Top-20 avg cost vs price×2.13
+1.09×
×1.04
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$3
−$253
$256
Recent buyer dominance0.65
−0.34
0.99
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-52.0%
−46.6 pp
-5.3%
Underwater %92.3%
+12.0 pp
80.3%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %5.1%
−11.3 pp
16.4%
Bot %5.1%
−11.3 pp
16.4%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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