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Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 21, 2026?

data as of 2026-02-21 10:56 UTC● RESOLVEDNo won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
YES
0¢
NO✓ WON
100¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
YES
0¢
YesY-NNo
Position$623−$7.5K$8.1K
Holders46+1729
Trades302+71231
NO
100¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate46.7%
−16.6 pp
63.3%
Avg ROI-0.5%
−5.7 pp
5.2%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×2.50
+1.61×
×0.89
Top-20 avg cost vs price×2.33
+1.42×
×0.91
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume−$9
−$565
$556
Recent buyer dominance0.00
−1.00
1.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-56.9%
−66.6 pp
9.7%
Underwater %90.7%
+76.3 pp
14.5%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %17.9%
−7.6 pp
25.5%
Bot %22.1%
−3.4 pp
25.5%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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