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Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by December 31?

data as of 2025-12-01 08:24 UTC● RESOLVEDYes won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
YES✓ WON
100¢
NO
0¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
YES
100¢
YesY-NNo
Position$6.2K+$2.6K$3.5K
Holders58+454
Trades320+7313
NO
0¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate45.6%
−12.2 pp
57.8%
Avg ROI-1.3%
−15.2 pp
13.9%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×0.70
−3.30×
×4.00
Top-20 avg cost vs price×0.71
−4.08×
×4.79
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume−$582
−$1.7K
$1.1K
Recent buyer dominance0.20
−0.79
0.99
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL42.1%
+122.9 pp
-80.8%
Underwater %1.3%
−90.7 pp
92.0%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %12.0%
−29.9 pp
41.9%
Bot %12.0%
−30.7 pp
42.7%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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