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Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the February 2026 meeting?

data as of 2025-12-16 16:46 UTC● RESOLVEDNo won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
YES
0¢
NO✓ WON
100¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
YES
0¢
YesY-NNo
Position$1.2K−$477K$479K
Holders105−188293
Trades2.6K+3682.2K
NO
100¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate31.8%
−49.2 pp
81.1%
Avg ROI-15.0%
−16.0 pp
1.0%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×1.51
+0.51×
×1.00
Top-20 avg cost vs price×1.26
+0.26×
×1.00
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$6
−$886
$893
Recent buyer dominance1.00
+0.07
0.93
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-17.2%
−17.3 pp
0.1%
Underwater %55.2%
+21.6 pp
33.6%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %1.1%
−88.6 pp
89.7%
Bot %6.2%
−83.5 pp
89.7%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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