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Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31?

data as of 2026-07-24 20:28 UTC▲ Higher win rate: No🗓️ settles Oct 31, 2026Trade on Polymarket ↗
YES
41¢
NO
59¢
YES
41¢
YesY-NNo
Position$1−$52$53
Holders1−34
Trades4−610
NO
59¢
YesΔ YNNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate0.0%
−43.4 pp
43.4%
Avg ROI0.0%
−1.6 pp
1.6%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×0.00
−1.00×
×1.00
Top-20 avg cost vs price×0.00
−0.99×
×0.99
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume−$8
−$11
$3
Recent buyer dominance0.00
−1.00
1.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL0.0%
−0.8 pp
0.8%
Underwater %0.0%
−22.1 pp
22.1%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %0.0%
+0.0 pp
0.0%
Bot %0.0%
+0.0 pp
0.0%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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