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Bitcoin Up or Down on July 4?

data as of 2025-07-04 09:13 UTC● RESOLVEDDown won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
UP
0¢
DOWN✓ WON
100¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
UP
0¢
UpU-DDown
Position$52K−$78K$130K
Holders72+1755
Trades1.4K+2941.1K
DOWN
100¢
UpΔ U−DDown
Track record
Avg settle win rate52.4%
−2.7 pp
55.1%
Avg ROI2.7%
+2.5 pp
0.2%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×12.12
+11.42×
×0.70
Top-20 avg cost vs price×16.16
+15.50×
×0.65
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$635
−$226
$862
Recent buyer dominance0.98
−0.02
1.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-94.3%
−142.9 pp
48.6%
Underwater %99.9%
+99.9 pp
0.0%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %38.1%
−11.2 pp
49.3%
Bot %37.0%
−12.2 pp
49.3%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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