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Will xAI have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?

data as of 2025-12-23 15:33 UTC● RESOLVEDNo won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
YES
0¢
NO✓ WON
100¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
YES
0¢
YesY-NNo
Position$284−$25K$26K
Holders191+13178
Trades1.9K+1.1K780
NO
100¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate37.4%
−43.3 pp
80.7%
Avg ROI7.1%
+7.4 pp
-0.3%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×2.95
+1.96×
×0.99
Top-20 avg cost vs price×3.64
+2.65×
×0.99
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$2
−$582
$584
Recent buyer dominance1.00
+0.00
1.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-73.9%
−74.8 pp
0.9%
Underwater %100.0%
+100.0 pp
0.0%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %35.3%
−47.8 pp
83.1%
Bot %35.4%
−48.2 pp
83.5%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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