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Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025?

data as of 2025-07-06 02:46 UTC● RESOLVEDYes won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
YES✓ WON
100¢
NO
0¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
YES
100¢
YesY-NNo
Position$77K+$67K$9.7K
Holders2.3K+2.0K328
Trades10K+4.2K6.2K
NO
0¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate66.3%
+22.4 pp
43.9%
Avg ROI0.7%
+0.4 pp
0.4%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×0.94
−23.08×
×24.02
Top-20 avg cost vs price×0.92
−28.16×
×29.08
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$1.1K
+$1.1K
$75
Recent buyer dominance0.58
−0.20
0.78
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL9.3%
+105.3 pp
-96.0%
Underwater %1.9%
−97.4 pp
99.3%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %19.5%
−36.2 pp
55.7%
Bot %27.2%
−27.3 pp
54.6%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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