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Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling?

data as of 2026-06-02 01:21 UTC✓ on-chain◆ Even win rates🗓️ settles Apr 16, 2027Trade on Polymarket ↗
YES
36¢
NO
64¢
YES
36¢
YesY-NNo
Position$5.6K+$1.3K$4.3K
Holders48+1434
Trades175+37138
NO
64¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate58.8%
+0.5 pp
58.3%
Avg ROI0.5%
−0.8 pp
1.3%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×1.22
+0.14×
×1.08
Top-20 avg cost vs price×1.20
+0.13×
×1.07
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume−$462
−$1.5K
$1.0K
Recent buyer dominance0.00
−1.00
1.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-16.2%
−9.7 pp
-6.4%
Underwater %98.6%
+8.3 pp
90.3%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %0.2%
−1.0 pp
1.1%
Bot %0.2%
−1.2 pp
1.4%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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