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Will the US next strike Iran on March 3, 2026 (ET)?

data as of 2026-02-28 08:30 UTC● RESOLVEDNo won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
YES
0¢
NO✓ WON
100¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
YES
0¢
YesY-NNo
Position$5.8K−$251K$257K
Holders320−96416
Trades11K+1.7K9.2K
NO
100¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate37.2%
−39.9 pp
77.1%
Avg ROI-1.5%
−10.1 pp
8.6%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×2.07
+0.97×
×1.10
Top-20 avg cost vs price×3.34
+2.25×
×1.09
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$24
−$1.6K
$1.7K
Recent buyer dominance0.83
+0.02
0.81
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-65.4%
−57.6 pp
-7.8%
Underwater %81.0%
−18.2 pp
99.2%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %4.0%
−91.4 pp
95.4%
Bot %3.7%
−91.7 pp
95.4%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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