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Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C or higher on April 21?

data as of 2026-04-21 09:03 UTC● RESOLVEDNo won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
YES
0¢
NO✓ WON
100¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
YES
0¢
YesY-NNo
Position$377−$2.7K$3.1K
Holders103−5108
Trades676+254422
NO
100¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate45.4%
−37.0 pp
82.5%
Avg ROI10.7%
+11.1 pp
-0.4%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×5.35
+4.46×
×0.89
Top-20 avg cost vs price×5.26
+4.35×
×0.91
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$3
−$154
$157
Recent buyer dominance0.64
−0.34
0.98
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-82.5%
−93.5 pp
11.0%
Underwater %99.9%
+98.9 pp
1.1%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %21.1%
+2.5 pp
18.7%
Bot %27.2%
+8.6 pp
18.7%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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