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Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET

data as of 2026-01-03 21:15 UTC● RESOLVEDDown won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
UP
0¢
DOWN✓ WON
100¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
UP
0¢
UpU-DDown
Position$32K−$24K$56K
Holders365−125490
Trades6.9K+1.1K5.9K
DOWN
100¢
UpΔ U−DDown
Track record
Avg settle win rate53.1%
−5.1 pp
58.2%
Avg ROI-0.4%
−0.6 pp
0.2%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×38.12
+37.50×
×0.62
Top-20 avg cost vs price×38.09
+37.48×
×0.62
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$7.7K
−$2.2K
$10.0K
Recent buyer dominance0.78
+0.12
0.66
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-97.2%
−160.0 pp
62.8%
Underwater %97.3%
+97.3 pp
0.0%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %74.8%
+7.1 pp
67.7%
Bot %74.2%
+8.7 pp
65.5%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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