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Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?

data as of 2026-05-02 23:07 UTC● RESOLVEDNo won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
YES
0¢
NO✓ WON
100¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
YES
0¢
YesY-NNo
Position$765−$3.9K$4.7K
Holders43−1356
Trades279+2277
NO
100¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate46.3%
−33.5 pp
79.8%
Avg ROI10.5%
+7.8 pp
2.7%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×0.57
−0.67×
×1.24
Top-20 avg cost vs price×0.58
−0.71×
×1.29
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$91
−$257
$349
Recent buyer dominance1.00
+0.00
1.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL80.2%
+102.5 pp
-22.4%
Underwater %0.0%
−100.0 pp
100.0%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %18.0%
−16.6 pp
34.5%
Bot %18.0%
−16.6 pp
34.5%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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