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Will the Democratic Party win the OK-04 House seat?

data as of 2026-03-04 20:39 UTC✓ on-chain▲ Higher win rate: No🗓️ settles Nov 3, 2026Trade on Polymarket ↗
YES
5¢
NO
95¢
YES
5¢
YesY-NNo
Position$78−$988$1.1K
Holders28−432
Trades121+3190
NO
95¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate43.5%
−32.8 pp
76.3%
Avg ROI5.5%
+0.5 pp
4.9%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×1.60
+0.63×
×0.97
Top-20 avg cost vs price×1.57
+0.60×
×0.97
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$193
−$2.1K
$2.3K
Recent buyer dominance1.00
+0.00
1.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-36.5%
−39.6 pp
3.1%
Underwater %98.2%
+98.2 pp
0.0%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %28.5%
+15.1 pp
13.4%
Bot %28.5%
+15.1 pp
13.4%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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