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Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?

data as of 2026-05-16 15:38 UTC● RESOLVEDNo won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
YES
0¢
NO✓ WON
100¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
YES
0¢
YesY-NNo
Position$773−$4.3K$5.1K
Holders36−642
Trades232+103129
NO
100¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate38.3%
−7.2 pp
45.5%
Avg ROI-6.5%
−18.0 pp
11.5%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×4.82
+3.94×
×0.88
Top-20 avg cost vs price×5.09
+4.22×
×0.87
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$47
−$414
$462
Recent buyer dominance0.89
−0.10
0.99
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-80.4%
−94.8 pp
14.4%
Underwater %98.0%
+98.0 pp
0.0%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %7.7%
+6.3 pp
1.4%
Bot %7.7%
+6.3 pp
1.4%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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