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Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

data as of 2026-05-23 10:51 UTC✓ on-chain▲ Higher win rate: No🗓️ settles Nov 4, 2020Trade on Polymarket ↗
YES
11¢
NO
88¢
YES
11¢
YesY-NNo
Position$3.7K−$8.9K$13K
Holders74−1589
Trades1.1K+524581
NO
88¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate52.1%
−26.5 pp
78.6%
Avg ROI12.3%
+10.5 pp
1.8%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×0.82
−0.15×
×0.97
Top-20 avg cost vs price×1.03
+0.08×
×0.96
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$4
−$23
$26
Recent buyer dominance0.50
−0.50
1.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-12.9%
−18.0 pp
5.0%
Underwater %41.8%
+41.8 pp
0.1%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %54.0%
−26.9 pp
80.8%
Bot %58.3%
−23.0 pp
81.2%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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