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Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?

data as of 2026-04-23 00:12 UTC● RESOLVEDNo won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
YES
0¢
NO✓ WON
100¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
YES
0¢
YesY-NNo
Position$271−$6.0K$6.3K
Holders65−469
Trades788+329459
NO
100¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate31.7%
−45.1 pp
76.8%
Avg ROI14.0%
+13.7 pp
0.3%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×3.87
+2.90×
×0.97
Top-20 avg cost vs price×4.85
+3.89×
×0.96
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$2
−$76
$77
Recent buyer dominance0.70
−0.14
0.83
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-81.1%
−86.3 pp
5.2%
Underwater %100.0%
+100.0 pp
0.0%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %12.9%
−29.2 pp
42.1%
Bot %13.6%
−28.5 pp
42.1%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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