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Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

data as of 2026-05-29 22:43 UTC✓ on-chain▲ Higher win rate: No🗓️ settles Dec 31, 2026Trade on Polymarket ↗
YES
51¢
NO
49¢
YES
51¢
YesY-NNo
Position$5.9K+$310$5.5K
Holders53−3285
Trades550+122428
NO
49¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate52.0%
−8.8 pp
60.8%
Avg ROI-5.9%
−9.6 pp
3.7%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×1.02
+0.08×
×0.94
Top-20 avg cost vs price×0.96
−0.07×
×1.03
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$131
+$9
$121
Recent buyer dominance1.00
+0.00
1.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL4.4%
+8.7 pp
-4.2%
Underwater %81.3%
+46.5 pp
34.8%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %5.3%
−17.1 pp
22.3%
Bot %5.3%
−17.3 pp
22.5%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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