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Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?

data as of 2026-01-07 01:25 UTC● RESOLVEDNo won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
YES
0¢
NO✓ WON
100¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
YES
0¢
YesY-NNo
Position$816−$7.2K$8.0K
Holders96+6630
Trades811+564247
NO
100¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate57.0%
−24.1 pp
81.1%
Avg ROI10.9%
+9.3 pp
1.6%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×1.08
+0.09×
×0.99
Top-20 avg cost vs price×1.41
+0.45×
×0.96
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$75
+$256
−$181
Recent buyer dominance1.00
+1.00
0.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-40.3%
−45.2 pp
4.8%
Underwater %51.4%
+51.4 pp
0.0%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %12.0%
−12.0 pp
24.0%
Bot %12.9%
−11.1 pp
24.0%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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