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Will xAI have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026?

data as of 2026-02-21 23:15 UTC● RESOLVEDNo won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
YES
0¢
NO✓ WON
100¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
YES
0¢
YesY-NNo
Position$643−$29K$29K
Holders83−144227
Trades1.7K+6271.0K
NO
100¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate47.2%
−35.5 pp
82.6%
Avg ROI37.9%
+35.0 pp
2.9%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×4.03
+3.05×
×0.98
Top-20 avg cost vs price×4.48
+3.50×
×0.98
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$4
−$591
$594
Recent buyer dominance0.65
−0.35
1.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-77.7%
−79.6 pp
1.9%
Underwater %100.0%
+100.0 pp
0.0%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %40.1%
−44.8 pp
84.9%
Bot %39.6%
−45.2 pp
84.8%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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