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Will Fernando Olivera win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

data as of 2026-02-08 19:43 UTC✓ on-chain▲ Higher win rate: No🗓️ settles Apr 12, 2026Trade on Polymarket ↗
YES
0¢
NO
100¢
YES
0¢
YesY-NNo
Position$366−$95K$95K
Holders99−45144
Trades5.8K+3.1K2.7K
NO
100¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate50.7%
−29.8 pp
80.5%
Avg ROI44.4%
+44.5 pp
-0.2%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×3.11
+2.11×
×1.00
Top-20 avg cost vs price×3.86
+2.87×
×1.00
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$0
−$94
$94
Recent buyer dominance0.72
−0.28
1.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-75.4%
−75.8 pp
0.4%
Underwater %98.0%
+97.6 pp
0.4%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %46.6%
−31.2 pp
77.9%
Bot %47.4%
−30.5 pp
77.9%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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