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Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

data as of 2026-01-31 21:40 UTC● RESOLVEDNo won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
YES
0¢
NO✓ WON
100¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
YES
0¢
YesY-NNo
Position$292K−$1.31M$1.60M
Holders1.1K+132924
Trades47K+2.9K44K
NO
100¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate49.9%
−19.3 pp
69.2%
Avg ROI1.4%
−6.3 pp
7.7%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×25.79
+25.01×
×0.78
Top-20 avg cost vs price×25.00
+24.21×
×0.79
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$0
−$291
$291
Recent buyer dominance0.53
−0.14
0.67
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-96.0%
−128.6 pp
32.6%
Underwater %100.0%
+100.0 pp
0.0%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %8.3%
−18.5 pp
26.8%
Bot %7.2%
−20.1 pp
27.3%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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