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Grok 4.4 released by August 31?

data as of 2026-07-03 10:11 UTC◆ Even win rates🗓️ settles Aug 31, 2026Trade on Polymarket ↗
YES
92¢
NO
4¢
YES
92¢
YesY-NNo
Position$417+$383$33
Holders6+15
Trades6−39
NO
4¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate46.9%
−0.2 pp
47.2%
Avg ROI1.3%
−30.0 pp
31.3%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×1.01
−2.24×
×3.25
Top-20 avg cost vs price×1.01
−2.19×
×3.19
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$417
+$417
$0
Recent buyer dominance1.00
+1.00
0.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-0.6%
+68.1 pp
-68.7%
Underwater %56.7%
−43.3 pp
100.0%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %0.0%
−34.6 pp
34.6%
Bot %0.0%
−44.5 pp
44.5%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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