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Will Trump say "Charlie Kirk" during the State of the Union address?

data as of 2026-02-25 01:45 UTC● RESOLVEDYes won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
YES✓ WON
100¢
NO
0¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
YES
100¢
YesY-NNo
Position$6.4K+$4.3K$2.1K
Holders90+1575
Trades528−180708
NO
0¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate59.9%
−4.2 pp
64.2%
Avg ROI8.0%
+1.0 pp
6.9%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×0.74
−1.40×
×2.14
Top-20 avg cost vs price×0.74
−1.33×
×2.07
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume−$161
−$187
$25
Recent buyer dominance0.12
−0.61
0.73
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL35.3%
+86.1 pp
-50.9%
Underwater %0.0%
−98.9 pp
98.9%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %24.9%
−14.5 pp
39.4%
Bot %25.0%
−21.5 pp
46.5%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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