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Aaron Nesmith: Rebounds O/U 4.5

data as of 2026-02-03 18:07 UTC● RESOLVEDNo won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
YES
0¢
NO✓ WON
100¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
YES
0¢
YesY-NNo
Position$23−$2.0K$2.1K
Holders22+202
Trades51+429
NO
100¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate20.9%
−49.0 pp
69.9%
Avg ROI40.1%
+20.9 pp
19.2%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×1.25
+0.25×
×1.00
Top-20 avg cost vs price×2.33
+1.33×
×1.00
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume−$7
−$103
$96
Recent buyer dominance0.00
−1.00
1.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-57.1%
−57.1 pp
0.0%
Underwater %80.6%
+80.6 pp
0.0%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %41.1%
+41.1 pp
0.0%
Bot %41.1%
+41.1 pp
0.0%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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