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Will the Republican Party hold between 190 and 194 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

data as of 2026-03-24 00:17 UTC✓ on-chain▲ Higher win rate: No🗓️ settles Nov 3, 2026Trade on Polymarket ↗
YES
11¢
NO
87¢
YES
11¢
YesY-NNo
Position$913−$2.3K$3.2K
Holders49−3584
Trades478+94384
NO
87¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate27.9%
−53.9 pp
81.8%
Avg ROI9.1%
+9.2 pp
-0.1%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×1.22
+0.24×
×0.98
Top-20 avg cost vs price×1.28
+0.30×
×0.98
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$11
−$54
$64
Recent buyer dominance0.58
−0.13
0.71
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-23.8%
−25.5 pp
1.6%
Underwater %98.0%
+89.7 pp
8.4%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %9.5%
−76.3 pp
85.7%
Bot %9.5%
−76.3 pp
85.7%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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